The Rise and Fall in Retail eCommerce: Analysing February 2026

Introduction

After the sharp post peak reset seen in January, February 2026 presented a more mixed picture across retail eCommerce. The Total Market declined slightly by 4.2% month on month, suggesting that while consumer demand remains cautious, the steep contraction seen in January has begun to stabilise.

Unlike January, where declines were widespread, February showed greater divergence between categories. Several sectors experienced strong rebounds, while others continued to struggle as discretionary spending remained under pressure.

Below we analyse the top performing sectors and under performing sectors based purely on month on month (MoM) performance, followed by broader insights retailers should consider as Q1 continues.

Top Performing Sectors (MoM)

1. Gardening (+64.1%)

Gardening delivered the strongest month on month performance in February, surging 64.1%. making it the clear standout category of the month.

This significant uplift reflects the early start of seasonal planning for spring, with consumers beginning to purchase gardening tools, plants, seeds, and outdoor preparation products. As daylight hours increase and weather conditions begin to improve, consumers often begin preparing outdoor spaces earlier than expected.

Retailers that launched early spring campaigns, gardening inspiration content, and project focused promotions were likely able to capture this early seasonal demand.

2. Garden Furnishings (+30.4%)

Closely following Gardening, Garden Furnishings grew 30.4% MoM, indicating that consumers are not only planning garden maintenance but also considering outdoor living upgrades.

Demand in this category typically includes patio furniture, outdoor seating, and garden décor, suggesting consumers are already anticipating warmer months and investing in outdoor lifestyle products.

However, it is important to note that despite the strong MoM recovery, the category remains significantly down year on year, indicating that the February spike may represent early seasonal demand rather than sustained long term growth.

3. Fragrance (+31.1%)

Fragrance recorded 31.1% MoM growth, benefiting from Valentine’s Day purchasing behaviour, where perfumes remain one of the most common gifting categories.

Unlike December gifting, Valentine’s Day tends to concentrate demand around premium, emotionally driven purchases, which often benefits fragrance brands in particular.

While the MoM growth was strong, the year to date performance remains slightly negative, suggesting that February provided a short term demand spike rather than a sustained recovery.

Under Performing Sectors (MoM)

1. Baby & Toddler ( -23.5%)

Baby & Toddler was the weakest performing category in February, declining 23.5% MoM.

Unlike many discretionary retail categories, Baby products typically benefit from consistent baseline demand. However, the decline may reflect post Christmas inventory normalisation, as many consumers purchase baby products during holiday promotions.

Interestingly, despite the monthly decline, the category remains slightly positive year to date, suggesting that January likely saw stronger relative performance.

2. Sports & Outdoors ( -21.0%)

Sports & Outdoors fell 21.0% MoM, continuing the early year slowdown seen across several discretionary categories.

While fitness related demand often increases early in the year due to New Year resolution driven purchases, that demand frequently peaks in January before tapering off in February.

The category’s decline likely reflects this resolution driven demand fading, combined with broader consumer caution around discretionary spending.

3. Homewares & Decorations ( -24.4%)

Homewares & Decorations declined 24.4% MoM, making it one of the weakest segments within Home & Garden.

Unlike functional home categories such as Home Improvement, decorative purchases tend to be more discretionary, meaning they are often postponed when consumers tighten budgets.

The category does show positive year on year growth, suggesting underlying demand remains stable, but February likely reflected a short term pullback.

Other Notable Month on Month Movements

Beers & Wines: +21.0%

A notable rebound following January’s post festive drop. The recovery suggests normal purchasing patterns are beginning to resume after Dry January behaviour.

Health & Beauty: +5.5%

A relatively stable category overall, supported by steady growth in Beauty (+9.5%), Haircare (+8.5%), Makeup (+7.8%), and Skincare (+8.0%).

Large Appliances:  -4.2%

After strong January performance, Large Appliances saw a mild pullback in February, suggesting replacement demand may have temporarily slowed.

Clothing:  -2.2%

Fashion categories remained subdued, with Menswear ( -6.1%) and Footwear ( -7.4%) continuing to face weak consumer demand.

Gaming & Computing: +4.9%

A modest recovery following the post peak decline in January, although year on year performance remains significantly down.

Home & Garden (Overall):  -9.9%

Despite strong growth in Gardening categories, broader Home segments such as Furniture and Homewares weighed down overall performance.

Mobile Commerce:  -2.4%

A relatively stable performance compared to other tech categories, with Smartphones declining only slightly ( -2.5%).

Looking Ahead: What Retailers Should Prioritise

For Stronger MoM Sectors

Gardening & Garden Furnishings

Retailers should accelerate spring preparation messaging, focusing on outdoor living, garden transformations, and early seasonal promotions. Educational content and project guides can help maintain momentum into peak gardening season.

Fragrance & Beauty

Capitalising on gifting moments beyond Valentine’s Day such as Mother’s Day promotions and luxury self care messaging could sustain demand through early spring.

For Weaker MoM Sectors

Baby & Toddler

Retailers may need to stimulate demand through bundles, practical value messaging, and subscription style replenishment offers for everyday essentials.

Sports & Outdoors

Shifting focus toward spring outdoor activities and lifestyle driven messaging could help re engage consumers ahead of warmer months.

Homewares & Decorations

Retailers should emphasise small affordable home refresh products rather than large decorative purchases to match current consumer spending behaviour.

Conclusion

February 2026 highlighted the early stages of market stabilisation following January’s sharp correction. While the Total Market remained slightly negative month on month, performance varied widely between sectors.

Categories linked to seasonal preparation and key retail events, such as Gardening and Fragrance, experienced strong growth. Meanwhile, several discretionary sectors continued to struggle as consumers remained cautious with spending.

For retailers, February signals an important transition period. Those who align product visibility, promotions, and messaging with seasonal demand shifts will be best positioned to capture growth opportunities as spring approaches.